Fall on the River: What Anglers Need to Know for Early October Fishing

Early October on the Water: A Fall Salmon Fishing Report from the Lake Ontario Tributaries

There's a particular kind of dedication that drives a fishing guide to record a fishing report in the rain, raincoat pulled tight, camera pointed at the river, racing the weather before the lens drowns. That's exactly the scene Jay Peck of Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing set this early October, filing one of the most honest and practically useful fall salmon reports you'll find anywhere on the water. Joined by his social media helper Albert and Albert's son Damian — a young angler getting his early river miles in — Jay delivered a report that, despite a few technical misadventures with dead batteries and corrupted data, managed to capture everything serious anglers need to know heading into the heart of fall salmon season on the DSR.

Current Conditions: Low Water, Good Temperatures, and a Steady Trickle of Fish

The headline this October is a familiar one for regulars on these systems: another low water year. With releases sitting at a modest 185 CFS, the river is running lean, and that has real consequences for where fish can comfortably stage. But while the flows leave something to be desired, the water temperatures have come around nicely — sitting in the low 60s Fahrenheit for most of the day — a range that keeps fish active and feeding without the lethargy that warmer late-summer water can bring.

Cold mornings have become a feature of the season. Jay noted that temperatures around the Elkmont area have dipped to the upper 30s — 37 to 38 degrees — on several mornings, cold enough to generate ground fog as residual heat bleeds rapidly out of the earth.

"We had a couple of cold mornings in Elkmont where the temperatures were about 37, 38 degrees. So cold you actually get ground fog because the heat in the ground is cooling so fast."

— Jay Peck, Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing

The system is crying out for significant rainfall. A passing northeaster grazed the area during filming, but it delivered only the very edge of the storm — enough to warrant a raincoat but nowhere near the volume needed to lift flows meaningfully. As Jay put it plainly, the rain they received was "barely maintenance." A bull's-eye from a proper storm system is what the river genuinely needs, but for now, anglers have to work within the constraints of what they've got.

Fish Distribution: From the Upper Fly Zone to the Bottom of the DSR

Despite the low water, fish are spread throughout the system in a way that should encourage anglers willing to explore. Jay confirmed that salmon have pushed all the way from his filming location at the bottom of the DSR up through the upper fly zone, stacking wherever the river can accommodate them. Any deeper water — pools, deeper runs, pocket water with a bit of depth — is holding fish right now.

The lower fly zone, however, remains closed for the time being. Jay expects it to open once water flows improve, but for now, attention should be directed toward the upper fly zone and the sections from Sportsman's downstream. That said, the Pineville section has come alive in recent days, emerging as a productive stretch that had been relatively quiet earlier in the season.

"The pools have got a good stack of fish in it. So we're filling up with fish in appropriate fish-holding gaps — because we're still dealing with 185 release and the water is very low, the river is limited in where the fish can comfortably sit."

— Jay Peck, Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing

Low water concentrates fish, which sounds like good news — and in some ways it is — but it also concentrates fishing pressure. Fish that have been in the river for a stretch, seen multiple presentations, and are beginning to feel the biological pull toward spawning can become notoriously difficult. Knowing this shapes every decision from tippet selection to fly choice to presentation style.

Reading the Bite: Inconsistent but Not Absent

If there's one word to describe the fishing this early October, it's variable. The bite has not been consistent from day to day, or even from morning to afternoon on the same day. Some days have been notably productive; others have been stubbornly slow. Yet through it all, Jay emphasizes that there's been a reliable, steady trickle of fish coming to hand — nothing explosive, but enough to keep things genuinely interesting throughout the day.

The fish themselves are described as "still mean, still angry" — king and coho salmon deep into the fall run, full of fight once hooked. But coaxing a strike out of them is another matter entirely. These are fish that have been worked over, fish that are feeling the hormonal surge of the pre-spawn period, and fish that, on bright high-pressure days, can become maddeningly selective.

"There's a lot of fish in the water, but they can still be a bit nippy — as in, they'll just nip at the fly. Or they just don't want a larger fly. They want a smaller fly. So we're still having to experiment a lot."

— Jay Peck, Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing

The takeaway for anglers planning a trip is not to be discouraged by the inconsistency, but rather to arrive at the river with patience and a willingness to adapt. As Jay stresses repeatedly throughout his report, persistence and a commitment to experimentation are the great equalizers when conditions are fickle.

Presentation: The Difference Between a Strike and a Refusal

With pressured, moody fish holding in low, clear water, presentation is not merely important — it may be the single most consequential variable an angler controls. Jay has been meticulous about this in his own fishing, and his observations translate directly into actionable advice for anyone heading out.

The swing remains a powerful tool on this system, particularly in sections with good current and workable depth. There have been days this week when a straight, assertive downstream swing produced fish reliably. But on other days — sometimes the very next morning — the dead drift has been the more productive approach. The fish are keeping guides guessing, which is both the frustration and the charm of fall salmon fishing.

Location also matters when it comes to presentation style. Lower sections of the river, where fish are fresher and more aggressive, can tolerate and even reward a more active swing. Upper fly zone fish — fish that have been in the river longer, have seen more angling pressure, and are edging closer to their spawning imperative — tend to respond better to a delicate, slow swing or a genuinely soft dead drift. The rule of thumb: the higher up the system, the softer and slower the presentation needs to be.

"Up top it's going to be more of a softer, really soft drift, really slow swing. Down here, yesterday afternoon a good straight-out swing was really working well. Today it's been a little bit of a mix."

— Jay Peck, Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing

Tippet Strategy: Fishing Light in Low, Clear Water

Tippet selection in low, clear fall water is a conversation that divides anglers, but Jay's on-the-water experience this season has pointed clearly in one direction: lighter is more productive, even when the fish are large and combative. He's been running 10-pound tippet where his default instinct in normal flows might be 12-pound, and the results have been noticeably better in terms of inducing strikes.

For anglers in the upper fly zones targeting fish with nymphing or softer swing presentations, Jay suggests dropping further — down to 8-pound tippet, which corresponds roughly to 3X in traditional trout parlance. Ten-pound sits around 2X for reference. The smaller diameter and greater suppleness of lighter tippet allows flies to behave more naturally in the drift, and in bright conditions with clear, low water, that difference in action is almost certainly visible to the fish.

"I've been running a 10-lb tippet over a 12-lb tippet, even though the way these fish are acting — they're nasty, 12-lb would be good. But I've been getting better bites on 10-lb. If you're fishing upriver in the fly zones, you may have to resort to 8-lb, which for you trout fishermen, that's about 3X."

— Jay Peck, Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing

It's worth noting that fishing lighter tippet to aggressive, heavy fall salmon is not a decision made without consequence. Anglers choosing to go light must be prepared to play fish carefully, keeping pressure steady but not punishing, and be willing to accept the occasional break-off as the price of more strikes. The trade-off, at least this week on the DSR, appears to be worth it.

Fly Patterns: What's Getting It Done This Week

With low light, variable conditions, and fish ranging from aggressive fresh arrivals to well-pressured upper-system holders, the fly box this October needs range. Jay ran through his current go-to patterns after a minor technical detour — a dead battery claimed his original fly segment — and the roster reflects both proven fall staples and a few surprises.

Purple Egg Sucking Leech

The headliner right now. Jay calls this fly his anchor pattern for early-morning and low-light conditions, and it's been producing steadily enough that he feels comfortable putting it on and simply leaving it there for extended stretches. If you're starting the morning without one of these in the water, you may already be behind.

Purple and Shrimp/Sucker Patterns

Another consistent producer that Jay describes as "starting to earn its keep." The purple and shree sucker combination has been working across a variety of light conditions and is among his most-reached-for patterns this week.

Steely Crack (Size 4)

A surprise performer. Jay noted some eyebrow-raising results from a size 4 Steely Crack — a pattern he'd been somewhat skeptical about until the fish made their preference clear. It's been particularly effective in brighter conditions when larger, more aggressive patterns have produced refusals.

Olive Woolly Bugger

The great equalizer. When fish have been heavily pressured in bright, clear conditions and the flashier patterns are drawing nothing but disinterested inspections, the understated olive woolly bugger has been a reliable circuit-breaker. Its subtle, natural profile offers something entirely different from the typical salmon fly lineup — and sometimes that's exactly what a stale fish needs to see.

Pearlescent Shrimp/Tube Flies (Small Profile)

Coho salmon in particular have been enthusiastic about smaller pearlescent offerings. Jay emphasized that the key isn't a specific pattern so much as a specific size and profile — trim, smaller, and suggestive rather than flashy. For anglers tying on larger flies, he offers a practical solution: tie them long on tubes or shanks and cut them down streamside with a pair of scissors to achieve the right profile without having to carry an entirely separate set of smaller patterns.

On Egg Flies: Not Yet, But Soon

Jay has been holding off on egg flies despite beginning to observe some early spawning activity on the river. By his own cheerful admission, he's "being a little stubborn" on the subject. His instinct, however, tells him that within the next week or so, the season's first egg patterns should start entering the rotation. When they do, he'll be reaching for size 8 orange eggs — orange being the natural color of fresh salmon roe when it first enters the water, and therefore the most accurate imitation for early-season egg fishing.

"Remember, when those eggs first hit the water, they are orange — and that's what I'd use. However, I'm still being a little stubborn about egg flies. But probably next week or so, I'll start shifting over and trying those."

— Jay Peck, Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing

The Bottom Line: Get on the Water

For all its technical complexities — the low flows, the variable bite, the need for lighter tippets and smaller flies and careful presentations — Jay's early October report ultimately delivers a simple message: the fish are there, the temperatures are right, and now is the time to be on the water. Salmon season is in full swing across the DSR system, from the upper fly zone down to the lower reaches, and while no one is promising banner days, a persistent, adaptable angler working the right water has every reason to expect fish.

"We're in full swing of salmon season. Fish all the way through the river. Water flows are what they're going to be. Temperatures are good. It's just time to get on the water and fish, folks."

— Jay Peck, Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing

For anglers who prefer to let a professional do the navigating — literally and figuratively — Jay Peck Guides & Lost Rivers Fishing operates as a year-round fly fishing guide service working the Lake Ontario tributaries through fall and into winter, before transitioning to inland trout streams for classic dry fly fishing in spring and summer. Warm water species, including bass and pike, round out the summer calendar. Inquiries can be directed to fish@lostriversfishing.com.

And if you happen to pass Jay on the river this fall, do what fellow anglers have been doing all season: stop and say hello. He'll appreciate it — and he might just tip you off to which fly is working that morning.